Because he is not going to surrender power in his lifetime by choice.
-0.002055
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 16 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
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Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Files
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Probability
Answer
15%
(+5%)
Estonia
15%
(+5%)
Latvia
15%
(+5%)
Lithuania
The Putin regime is already overextended in the protracted war against Ukraine, and is not likely to open up new fronts.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 2, 2024 07:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 2, 2024 to Jun 2, 2025
75%
(0%)
No
Jun 2, 2024 to Jun 2, 2025
I don't think the State of Israel will extend its resources to fight on two fronts in this way within the time frame.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 2, 2024 07:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 2, 2024 to Jun 2, 2025
65%
(0%)
No
Jun 2, 2024 to Jun 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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I do not think they will be officially deployed in any other countries due to resource issues.