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Everydaydad

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New Prediction
Everydaydad
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 26, 2022 03:56AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 26, 2022 to Nov 26, 2022
Why do you think you're right?

The polls in Russia likely do not reflect reality. In addition, current polls suggest or purport that he is extremely popular. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Perhaps if he uses a nuke things would change. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Would take a coup or a major health issue to push him out. 

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Why might you be wrong?

He has been rumored to have serious health issues. In addition, if he takes extremely drastic measures in the war with Ukraine, perhaps a coup will force him out. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Was just elected. 

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Why might you be wrong?

A freak accident causing death or disability. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Under federal securities law, a company cannot announce the date of its IPO with almost any advanced notice. The date of a company’s IPO is the date that their offering is priced and sold to the public. Said date is dependent upon clearing an SEC comment review process that is wholly outside of the company’s control. It also requires the company to take substantial internal steps to ready itself for the financial and other public reporting that will be required. 


In the event that Impossible Foods did announce the beginning of its roadshow and an expected pricing date by the end of the year, it would have had to have confidentially filed with the SEC, clear said process very soon, and imminently launch a roadshow. Even if this occurred, it would take a few weeks, and the date of pricing would still be somewhat uncertain and only known days in advance.  


In addition, bankers typically do not like to be on the road during the thanksgiving to New Years period because fewer investors are in office during that period  


Furthermore, the markets have been off - and valuations for this type of company have come substantially off of their highs from 2021 and previous periods. Hence, barring a cash crunch at Impossible Foods or a major investor pushing for an exit, I don’t see this as happening. 

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Why might you be wrong?
An imminent IPO would have to be driven by cash needs or a major investor pushing for an exit into a very weak market. 
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New Prediction
Everydaydad
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 26, 2022 03:32AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Oct 26, 2022 to Nov 26, 2022
Why do you think you're right?

The time period covered by the question is “in the next month.”  The situation does not seem dire enough for so drastic a course of action. In addition, there appears to be substantial turmoil caused by the “draft” of many Russian men into the military and some reporting that Putin may be trying to delay said draft for a month or more. 


This would be a drastic course of action and one that would have severe negative consequences for Russia.

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Why might you be wrong?

There has also been recent reporting about Russian intelligence potentially trying to lay the groundwork for a false flag dirty bomb by Ukraine, which could theoretically justify use of nuclear weapons in response. 

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