Contradicts present growth projections
-0.0158
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-60%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025
80%
(+60%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025
Holding the consensus
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 7, 2024 05:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
(+75%)
Yes
Aug 7, 2024 to Aug 7, 2025
20%
(-75%)
No
Aug 7, 2024 to Aug 7, 2025
Escalating tensions and lack of clear resolution activity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(-10%)
Yes
20%
(+10%)
No
Correcting due to current tensions
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 14, 2024 06:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(+15%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
Updating previous forecast in light of recent events
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Factoring the current s
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 14, 2024 02:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
Going up but still low because of the salience of the target. More likely to happen on a less sensitive site
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 8, 2024 05:28PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 8, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025
95%
No
Apr 8, 2024 to Apr 8, 2025
Increasing hostilities with ISR may have an effect on
Files