The Israelis need to change their narrative it seems like and attack on Iran could help that
0.00058
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 13, 2024 12:28AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
90%
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
It seems that Israel benefits from a destabilized Lebanon. Given they are the regional power it's unlikely that they will hold elections
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Yes
86%
No
Why do you think you're right?
An executive on record said this would not be the case it is likely that the facility will stop doing the cutting edge research but it is unlikely they will close.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Chinese government will need to push for additional information or specifics about the research being conducted.
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
It is highly unlikely there doesn’t seem to be enough internal support to have this outcome exist.
Files