There’s little evidence to show that the Chinese are catching up , and then the Needham question remains wrt their rate of innovation , compared to the West, in the modern world
-0.000406
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
1
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New Prediction
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
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This forecast expired on Nov 8, 2024 04:17AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Oct 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2025
85%
No
Oct 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2025
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Western policies toward China makes this unlikely, however it could for the basis of an agreement re security issues
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