Confirming previous forecast. Putin seems to be in a stronger position in internal politics of Russia than ever before.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Cessation might be a bomb, a slip of poison, a horrible unexpected scuba diving incident.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-41%)
Yes
90%
(+41%)
No
With bitter fighting increasing and the junta's position on power becoming more and more stressed, I don't see a situation resolving to a point where the junta would schedule elections. (And certainly not the disparate groups or a coalition of them coming to power soon and offering elections.)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
51%
Yes
49%
No
Why do you think you're right?
With a target date of July 2025 (writing this in January 2024), that seems like plenty of time for motivations of the Tadmadaw to cure towards offering a general election.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The fighting has intensified during late Fall 2023, and any time there is kinetic conflict, variations against a plan for election can proceed in intensity and width.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-6%)
Yes
Adjusting downward due to time remaining (it is now 01 Dec '23) and due to the recent chaos at ChatGPT, and even the potential that some of that chaos is tied to the GPT-5 product (possibly). Also, much more heat from the federal executive on the development of safety in AI and moderating its usage.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Ongoing and new sanctions seem to have had no impact on power structure, neither has the prolonged war situation on domestic power play.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
With halting Western support for Ukraine, the war does look to drag on a very long time, and may not result in significant change in Russian territory holdings in Ukraine. However, if that situation changes ( more powerful Western technology and armaments to support Ukraine) then perhaps Putin will need to adjust his game at home.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It will be in Putin's interest to export the advanced air defense missile system(s) to strengthen the relationship with Iran as well as to shore up the outward appearance of the prominence of Russia's independent weapons manufacture capabilities during wartime.
Why might you be wrong?
There are enough wildcards in the current Middle East picture to disrupt any plans or predictions abruptly.