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Insider
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 8, 2022 02:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Nov 8, 2022 to Dec 8, 2022
Why do you think you're right?

THis would be a huge provocation to NATO. And it won't move the needle in Ukraine, nor win back a single inch of territory

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Why might you be wrong?

Putin is erratic, and he might have to show he's in charge by doing "crazy" things. 

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