An attack is not very common thing to happen, even though the circumstances make it more likely than normally.
0.057458
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2023 11:57AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Jul 29, 2023 to Jan 29, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I haven't searched for information about how often those kinds of attacks "usually" happen and what kind of circumstances make them more likely. So mostly based on gut feeling.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
43%
(+37%)
Yes
They have plans on launching it on 11 of August.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
Russia has not made public claims about going to the moon anytime soon.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
They have used nearly 5 out of the 12 months in use and found only one. If they keep this pace, they'll end up with only two discoveries.
Why might you be wrong?
It seems like they started working in 2022 or quite recently, but I'm not sure. If they were an old and established organization, I'd expect steadily declining amount of discoveries. But If they are just starting, as it seems, they may develop better research techniques and improve their operations faster than they exhaust the low-hanging fruits.
Hi @Iska, the Habitable Words Catalog is a new name of much older project Habitable Exoplanets Catalog -I think it started in late 2011. Here you can see the data on historical updates of the counts of exoplanets, which I created based on archived versions of the current and previous websites. Here you can also find my comments and my most up-to-date understanding: https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1373-will-at-least-five-more-exoplanets-be-found-to-be-potentially-habitable-between-1-february-2024-and-31-december-2024?view_forecaster_activity=2518