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John
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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? -0.005481
Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)? -0.098099
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? 0.080964
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? -0.057008
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? 0.059051
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? -0.116941
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.000546
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.001128
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.015039
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM UTC How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? -0.270903
Aug 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 -0.014719
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 -0.099553
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 -0.086626
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? -0.00342
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? 0.024697
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? -0.026506
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? -0.036869
Feb 11, 2022 10:00PM UTC How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.031067
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? 0.122079
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? 0.020413
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