Comment deleted on Mar 13, 2024 04:41AM UTC
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Comment deleted on Mar 13, 2024 04:37AM UTC
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The next president is scheduled to be inaugurated on 7 May 2024. So Putin will still be president before 1 May 2024 unless he dies or is removed.
Putin will be 72 in 2024. The average life expectancy of males in Russia was 64 in 2021, but Putin lives in one of the districts with the highest life expectancies, where the average for males is 15.5 years longer, or about 80 years. If the standard deviation is 8 years and the distribution is normal, the probability that he dies before 72 is 16%. Since he has already survived till 71, the probability that he dies between 71 and 72 is around 16% / 8 = 2%.
There have been 2 successful coups in Russia since 1917 - one in 1953 and another in 1964. 2 coups in 106 years gives a base rate of about 2%.
Since there are only 1.5 months left, 2% / 12 * 1.5 = 0.25%.
Sources:
1. https://jech.bmj.com/content/74/2/144
2. https://www.actuaries.digital/2020/08/12/standard-deviation-around-life-expectancy-is-eight-years-what-this-means-for-retirees/
3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/06/putin-coup-soviet-russian-history-stalin-beria-khrushchev/