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Why do you think you're right?
- Maersk advising customers that vessel diversions will continue into Q2 / Q3: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/shipping-giant-maersk-doesnt-expect-red-sea-transits-anytime-soon.html
- Eddie Anderson, a professor in supply chain management at Imperial College London: "You're certainly talking about months. I don't imagine it's going to be years – but who can say." https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240119-red-sea-crisis-how-global-shipping-is-being-rerouted-out-of-danger
- Shipping companies have adjusted to the diversion. Trade has been slowed and seen increasing costs but has not dropped significantly. As such there is little need to risk assets using the route for transit while attacks continue.
- The location of Houthi postings, their stronghold in Western Yermen and the resources they have via state backing, make it easier to mount successful attacks on ships continuing to use the Red Sea shipping route.
Why might you be wrong?
- A ceasefire in the Israel - Palestine conflict could see an end to the attacks followed by an end to the diversions