-0.000081
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Putin has not been removed as president for 23988 months so taking the chances he is removed over the next two months as at 2/23988=0.00008338.
"120 leaders were removed through foreign-imposed regime change between 1816 and 2011" making the rate of that a 60% change each year.
So let's up the probability to 1%.