Confirmed previous forecast
2.403978
Relative Brier Score
87
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 309 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 7%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
80%
(0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files