RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.062134
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.173775
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	-0.171468
Jul 1, 2021 05:32PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	0.070754
Jun 1, 2021 06:44PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	0.02247
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.855884
Feb 1, 2021 02:47PM	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.063261
Nov 3, 2020 02:25PM	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	0.323128
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	-0.049109
Oct 1, 2020 04:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	0.000815
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	-0.039103
Sep 1, 2020 01:31PM	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	0.21398
Aug 1, 2020 03:59AM	Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?	0.096463
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM	Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?	-0.013148
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?	0.019323