Factors against launch:
- Lack of access to advanced technology due to international sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war
- Proven inability to supply such critical technologies to the military industry to accelerate production of advanced weaponary, which has a priority
- Structural defects in decision making: small elite with strong control and corrupted chain of actuators bellow
- When political elite takes the mission as national priority, they will allocate necessary resources "no matter cost"
Why do you think you're right?
Since the October 7th massacre by Hamas, the Israel Defence Forces have consistently communicated that the only acceptable outcome from this conflict (or war, as it is called by Israel and the U.S) is to make sure Hamas as an organization no longer exists.
By definition, a non-recognized or non-existent organization cannot be a party in bilateral negotiation, which is necessary in order to negotiate a ceasefire.
Due to the magnitude of damage and collective trauma that the recent terrorist attack caused to the whole nation of Israel, I do not see many realistic scenarios from the IDF standpoint, where they would be ready to change their goals regarding wiping out terrorist organizations (near their borders) that are threatening the lifelihoods of Israeli-population.
Why might you be wrong?
I see two scenarios in which case a ceasefire would be negotiated regardless of IDF's public goals:
1. Escalation of the war with unexpected magnitude. If Israel faces significantly higher than expected military pressure on other fronts, that would really put IDF to the breaking-point and in which case the intervention of United States becomes expected, the American sentiment unlikely would support this intervention and would force Israel back to the negotiations
2. Surrendering of hamas and significant gains in the hostage situation and intel. If Israel is able to return remaining hostages and capture cooperative hamas officers for gathering intel regarding wider regional cooperations between iran, hizbollah, hamas, there could be a temporary ceasefire. But even in such situation it is unlikely that Israel would return to status quo and would try to gain control (of force) in the Gaza strip