I will update it later. It is so exciting to see the collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment.
-0.069572
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
They need to be competitive so they will want to release it as soon as possible. ChatGPT has threatened its reputation. A lot of recent news or announcements from Microsoft show the urgency.
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Why might you be wrong?
They might meet some challenge that prevents "new Bing" from being public by April.
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