I will update it later. It is so exciting to see the collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment.
-0.069572
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
They need to be competitive so they will want to release it as soon as possible. ChatGPT has threatened its reputation. A lot of recent news or announcements from Microsoft show the urgency.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They might meet some challenge that prevents "new Bing" from being public by April.
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