Forecasted Questions
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 0% | 9% | -9% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 30% | 6% | +24% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 57% | -45% | +1% |
| No | 88% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 43% | +45% | -1% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 44% | 1% | +43% | +0% |
| Oman | 46% | 2% | +44% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 50% | 2% | +48% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 73% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 14% | +59% | -1% |
| No | 27% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 86% | -59% | +1% |
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:29PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 05:29PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | 50% | 11% | +39% | +0% |
| Kenya | 22% | 10% | +12% | +0% |
| Ethiopia | 84% | 35% | +49% | +0% |
| Nigeria | 42% | 5% | +37% | +0% |