Confirmed previous forecast
0.057783
Relative Brier Score
24
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025
84%
(0%)
No
Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025
88%
(0%)
No
Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+4%)
Yes
2%
(-4%)
No
Time passed, no signal
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
Adjusting for time passed
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16%
(-2%)
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025
84%
(+2%)
No
Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025
Adjusting for perceived overcorrection
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 17, 2024 04:29PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(+1%)
Yes
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
96%
(-1%)
No
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
Still think US election effects very uncertain.
Files
Unpredictability in US foreign policy anticipated, complex dynamics in ME, Saudi more than others.