Higher than average. Adjusting for mortality and incapacitating morbidity, 81 and previous prostate cancer in 2014. General instability in ME currently.
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Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Question Suggested
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
Yes
Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025
88%
No
Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
94%
Yes
6%
No
Lower forecast than mean. I don't think people adjusted for incapacitating morbidity as well as mortality, and I think US foreign policy is not that predictable on this, otherwise I anchored to the mean.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Higher than average forecast. Lower death risk from natural causes as rich and healthy lifestyle, but unlikely to be vastly lower than average. Add to that risk of morbidity that incapacitates him (e.g. stroke), risk of intentional harm from others, and any political/instability risks. Adjust for status quo bias.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-3%)
Yes
Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025
92%
(+3%)
No
Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025
Updated after viewing others' rationales, particularly on US intelligence on 2027 as invasion-ready point for PLA. Also to more roughly assume uniform distribution of risk over next few years and so to divide total risk by more. Still happy to stay above the mean due to adjusting for status quo bias and limited information to inform the decision.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
Yes
Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025
89%
No
Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Low confidence in my forecast. Maybe there is a 20-80% chance this will happen in the next 10 years. The chance of it happening in any given 6 month period would be less, but I don't know how the risk would be distributed across the time period. I increased my guess because of the unpredictability of the US election which to me would reduce disincentives to act. Also increasing strategic importance of semiconductors. Reduced forecast as peaceful reunification could occur.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lack of relevant knowledge, lack of publicly available information. Perhaps semiconductors from Taiwan become much more strategically important in the short term. Perhaps next US President withdraws support.
Files
Agree with base rates argument and increased recent instability. Incentive changes mixed including Russian influence and reduced influence of ECOWAS.