Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 11:11AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 11:11AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025 | Oct 12, 2024 | 0% | +8% | +0% |
| No | 92% | Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025 | Oct 12, 2024 | 100% | -8% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 11:16AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 11:16AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 99% | -3% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 11:29AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 11:29AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 94% | 96% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 6% | 4% | +2% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 11:34AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 11:34AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 5% | +7% | +1% |
| No | 88% | Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 95% | -7% | -1% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 11:43AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 11:43AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025 | Oct 12, 2024 | 54% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 47% | Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025 | Oct 12, 2024 | 46% | +1% | -1% |