Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 22, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 99% | -2% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 22, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 22, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | 97% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 22, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025 | Feb 22, 2025 | 12% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 88% | Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025 | Feb 22, 2025 | 88% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 22, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025 | Feb 22, 2025 | 22% | -6% | +0% |
| No | 84% | Nov 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2025 | Feb 22, 2025 | 78% | +6% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 22, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 2% | 1% | +1% | 0% |
| Oman | 2% | 2% | +0% | 0% |
| Qatar | 2% | 1% | +1% | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 3% | 2% | +1% | 0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |