LPinheiro

Lucas Pinheiro da Silva
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IR PhD student at University of Sao Paulo (USP) and M.A. in Strategic Studies.
Deputy Secretary - Center for Contemporary Chinese and Asian Studies at Fluminense Federal University (UFF).

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? 0.000133
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? 0.015712
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? 0.010068
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.017353
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? -0.000315
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? 0.092141
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? -0.170021
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? 0.377466
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023? 0.081361
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023? 0.164022
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? 0.132511
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? -0.028563
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.038663
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) 0.00046
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? 0.004768
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.001881
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.0
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? -0.001268
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM UTC How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023? -0.025189
Mar 15, 2023 01:24PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2023 -0.006828
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