LPinheiro

Lucas Pinheiro da Silva
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0.717657

Relative Brier Score

19

Forecasts

0

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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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Forecasts 0 0 0 0 218
Comments 0 0 0 0 75
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 48
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 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The protests aren't large enough to make such a powerful figure to flee the country. Furthermore, the Israel-Hamas conflict tends to strenghthen Iran's internal forces around the tensions against Israel and the solidarity for the Palestianians.

There are rumors on Khamenei's health, but that is expected from anyone in their 80s (France24).

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Why might you be wrong?

Among the options for resolution. Death is the most probable. It the Ayatollah Khamenei were very ill, it would be expected for it to be kept in secreat.

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New Prediction
LPinheiro
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
15% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
35% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
45% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war raised considerably the tensions in the Middle East. Given this context, advancements in the JCPOA seems improbable, because this would include the return of the US to the agreement. 

US has been fully committed in supporting Israel whose main potential enemy in the region is Iran. So, for both US and Iran, the moment is very unfavourable for advancements in this agenda, which I understand is a necessary condition for Iran to abide to IAEA requirements.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction

We are getting closer to the expiration date of this question with no expectation that there will be any positive event for the established perimeter. 


I re-checked the list of events and by reading how undetailed some descriptions are, even if there is an event that fits the description of the question, the will probabli be no report about it.

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New Prediction

Adding to the conflict in Sudan, the start of the Israel-Hamas war makes it even harder for a deal to be brokered on the matter, given the solidarity to the Palestinian people in Gaza, and the civilian fatalities.

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

The start of the Israel-Hamas war brings the chance of normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and any muslim-majority country down to close to zero. 

First, it is very unlikely that the this conflict will have a short-term resolution, and the question closing date is in only 2 months.

Second, even after the war ends, the afterday will matter. How many civilian fatalities will there be in the Palestinian side? How will the muslim-majority countries respond to it? Those uncertainties compromise the potential of negotiations on the way, such as the one between Saudi Arabia and Israel. 

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New Prediction
LPinheiro
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
15%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
35%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
45%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
It all depends on the return of the US to the JCPOA, according to UN and the US State Dpt (https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1138432). However, negotiations have stalled so far. Given the dilatated time horizon on this question, there margin to believe Iran might abide to IAEA rules, given that all parties seem to agree the return to JCPOA is the only way out.
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New Prediction

In accordance with the crowd, I am lowering the probability a little, but I will leave it some room because the time horizon is long and a lot can still happen.

Though China and Russia are parts of the JCPOA, important western powers are part of it and this agreement keeps the dialogue open to discuss security-related issues with a country that is very distanced from the West and that has just been accepted as part of the BRICs. Geopolitically, isolating even more the Iranians through the imposition of sactions would not be interesting for the US or Europe, in a world increasingly divided between the West and Russia/China.

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