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The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war raised considerably the tensions in the Middle East. Given this context, advancements in the JCPOA seems improbable, because this would include the return of the US to the agreement.
US has been fully committed in supporting Israel whose main potential enemy in the region is Iran. So, for both US and Iran, the moment is very unfavourable for advancements in this agenda, which I understand is a necessary condition for Iran to abide to IAEA requirements.
We are getting closer to the expiration date of this question with no expectation that there will be any positive event for the established perimeter.
I re-checked the list of events and by reading how undetailed some descriptions are, even if there is an event that fits the description of the question, the will probabli be no report about it.
Adding to the conflict in Sudan, the start of the Israel-Hamas war makes it even harder for a deal to be brokered on the matter, given the solidarity to the Palestinian people in Gaza, and the civilian fatalities.
The start of the Israel-Hamas war brings the chance of normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and any muslim-majority country down to close to zero.
First, it is very unlikely that the this conflict will have a short-term resolution, and the question closing date is in only 2 months.
Second, even after the war ends, the afterday will matter. How many civilian fatalities will there be in the Palestinian side? How will the muslim-majority countries respond to it? Those uncertainties compromise the potential of negotiations on the way, such as the one between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
In accordance with the crowd, I am lowering the probability a little, but I will leave it some room because the time horizon is long and a lot can still happen.
Though China and Russia are parts of the JCPOA, important western powers are part of it and this agreement keeps the dialogue open to discuss security-related issues with a country that is very distanced from the West and that has just been accepted as part of the BRICs. Geopolitically, isolating even more the Iranians through the imposition of sactions would not be interesting for the US or Europe, in a world increasingly divided between the West and Russia/China.
Why do you think you're right?
The protests aren't large enough to make such a powerful figure to flee the country. Furthermore, the Israel-Hamas conflict tends to strenghthen Iran's internal forces around the tensions against Israel and the solidarity for the Palestianians.
There are rumors on Khamenei's health, but that is expected from anyone in their 80s (France24).
Why might you be wrong?
Among the options for resolution. Death is the most probable. It the Ayatollah Khamenei were very ill, it would be expected for it to be kept in secreat.