It is unlikely they will make this move this early. BiH has been granted EU candidate status, and China has committed to BiH's further infrastructure development under the BRI, which makes it more tricky to start the secession process. Moreover, Serbia is in limbo as its balancing act between Russia, and the West falters and Vucic is unsure of his next move in regard to Kosovo. Serbia has to be comfortable and stable in order for Republika Srpska to pull such a move.
0.014478
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(-47%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Republika Srpska has wanted to separate for a while now and ultimately desires to separate.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Comment deleted on Feb 26, 2023 05:08PM UTC
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Comment deleted on Feb 26, 2023 05:09PM UTC
Files
Why do you think you're right?
China is not ready militarily to make such a risky move. Too much is at stake for China to do so.
Why might you be wrong?
China ultimately does want to retake Taiwan under its 'One China' Policy.