0.000831
Relative Brier Score
1
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0
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The Russian economy is not doing as badly as was expected. Furthermore, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has largely failed, leading to an at least temporary stalemate on the frontline. Putin has also been able to put down most of the domestic opposition against rule the last 24 months. This means that there does not seem to be a thread to his rule so large that he will be deposed somewhere in the next 2 months.
There is however a small change that some other factor like illness or other not foreseen circumstances that could put an end to his rule, so I'll give it 5%.