| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
I would think it's 80% but I'll downgrade a bit cause I'm probably dumb.
So many countries, there's a precedent, even some not-so-democratic countries in the list. Even a 1 hour ban seems to count? And 3 months? I would expect such a ban to happen, not sure about whether it would be enforced though.
I haven't followed mainstream AI coverage lately, so don't have an accurate image of what's happening there. Maybe not a lot of people care about it compared to what I expect? [insert aleksi thoughts about specific delta in expectations and reality here} Might be that I should be closer to 50% in that case, but I might still put it at 60%
Full scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023 is at 1% here (so let's say 1-1.5% for march 2024?) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13938/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-in-2023/
Shut down given some big protest is maybe 1% ish?
Shut-down because of natural disaster didn't happen before it seems, so let's say it's less than 1%
Cyber attacks, protests targeted at TSMC, some big global AI catastrophe, .... I think I expect about 1 in 70 worlds to be such that something surprising like this happens and causes a shutdown?
97% that it won't happen sounds really confident though, so I'll reduce it by 1%
-> 4%
(I don't know anything about anything)