Loki

About:

I have some previous forecasting experience, and like maths, philosophy and effective altruism.
I run a monthly forecasting newsletter, available here: https://forecasting.substack.com/, and have written & maintain a forecast aggregator at https://metaforecast.org
Part of the legendary Samotsvey Forecasting team, which won the first two seasons overwhelmingly. Note: I will generally not be updating my forecasts, or participating in the 2022 season, on account of ARLIS paying too little.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? -0.0577
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? -0.029967
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? -0.009156
Jan 01, 2022 02:17PM UTC Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? -0.092526
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? 0.006564
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? -0.00149
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.015018
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? -0.035628
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM UTC What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work? 0.151503
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? -0.099388
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM UTC What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)? -0.152163
Oct 01, 2021 06:31PM UTC [Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China? -0.029746
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive? 0.000452
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021? -0.000472
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021? 0.003179
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.001603
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work? 0.023542
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.000506
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM UTC What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? -0.008962
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.080288
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