24th
Accuracy Rank

MCowley

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Forecasted Questions

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 01, 2024 04:37AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 19, 2024 01:46PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 19, 2024 01:47PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 47% 11%
No 53% 89%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 19, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 1% 1%
Oman 1% 2%
Qatar 1% 1%
Saudi Arabia 2% 2%
Tunisia 1% 1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 04:58AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%
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