24th
Accuracy Rank

MCowley

About:

West Australian Engineer and former publican.

2nd of 7035 - In the News 2021 (GJO)
20th of 1654 - China and the World in 2021 (GJO)
5th of 2248 - Think Again with Adam Grant (GJO 2021)
5th of 1839 - Economist The World in 2021 (GJO)
1st of 35 - Karios Covid-19 Forecasting Tournament (2020)
15th percentile - GJO Project 2.0 Covid-19 forecasting Study (2020)
18th of 3351 - Economist World in 2020 (GJO)
40th of 8231- In the News 2020 (GJO)
55th of 4851 - Global Judgement Challenge 2020
1st of ~300 - Prescience 2019 Season

(Occasionally go by Moglj)

GJO: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/34959

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.064916
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? -0.000756
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? -0.001558
Mar 15, 2023 01:24PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2023 0.011919
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? -0.004225
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? -0.000026
Jan 02, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will the price per chip-hour of Google’s cloud-based Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v4) be greater than $3.22 on January 1, 2023? -0.005008
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.009276
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO? -0.005288
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe? -0.006731
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.001675
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) -0.000123
Dec 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022) 0.000047
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022? 0.046643
Nov 15, 2022 01:01PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Dec 2022 0.092192
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) -0.002545
Nov 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022) 0.0
Oct 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Nov 2022 0.040973
Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022) 0.000007
Sep 17, 2022 07:16PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Oct 2022 0.026301
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