There are good rationales provided by @cmeinel and @p01yh15t0r :
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/115780
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/115686
However there is no further news/information over internet.
Hence, I keep the forecast intact.
1.474173
Relative Brier Score
130
Forecasts
20
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 453 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 330 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 89 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 99 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 22, 2024 04:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 22, 2024 to Jul 22, 2024
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
(0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
100%
(0%)
Not before 1Q 2024
Agree to @A19 : https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/110276
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
........publicly accessible by the end of 2023 appears more doubtful
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
News is flooded over internet: Top Cybersecurity Trends in 2024.
Nothing on the cyber incidents for 2023 relevant to quantum computing.
Hence keeping the forecast unchanged.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 5%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
99%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6%
I keep the forecast unchanged.
@DKC , on side note, this is news:
At the end of a week in which Virgin Atlantic grabbed the headlines for flying from Heathrow to the USA on 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) they find themselves brought back to earth with a bump as climate charity Possible take aim at the airline – and British Airways – for greenwashing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
No change in the forecast as nothing new event is triggered.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
no news is available...
@MHidalgo : https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/110503
@404_NOT_FOUND : Mentioned about not so significant "China impact"
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/108396
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 2, 2024 10:08AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 2, 2023 to Jun 2, 2024
There is no news....keeping forecast as it is.
1) @qassiov provided analysis which I concur:
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/109673
2)Agree to @p01yh15t0r :
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/109538
Files
1) Internet does not provide anything new
2) @DKC provides more details here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/115443