Due to the low amount of immunity of the citizens in China caused by the zero Covid policy approach my estimation is that it is unlikely that China will announce an end. The restricted policy had ended in a low number of reported deaths caused by COVID-19 and China might feel pressured to not change its approach even with ongoing protests without a sustainable alternative such as increased resources in hospitals. As the vaccine in China only has 60% protection, I do not see that China would be in a good state to end its Covid policy but will likely relax its restrictions,as was published by financial times 12 hours ago.
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Why might you be wrong?
Due to the Protests, it is possible that China will announce a date. My estimation would be that the end date would be in the late of 2023 alternatively earlier with a possibility to prolong.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
Due to the overall insatiable financial market and stock market value decrease, I doubt Impossible Foods will take the step to announce a date of their IPO by the end of the year. Impossible Foods are also in a lawsuit over imitation-meat and it is unlikely that they would proceed with stock market entry until the case is settled.
On November 8, Foodnavigator.USA.com among other vegetarian centric online magazines announced that Impossible Foods has hired a new marketing chief with experience from big companies. My assessment is that they plan to increase the marketing profile and communication prior to IPO, wherefore I foresee that they will at least take 8 months before announcing a date to gain an internal alignment and results on the marketing strategy and implementation thereof.
Why might you be wrong?
Due to the success and sales of Impossible Foods the recent year, they might take the risk to announce the date for the IPO to continue staying in the spotlight as a green alternative giant in the food industry and attract investors.
Why do you think you're right?
China, US, Japan and the Republic of Korea have the most AI patent applications (rs-online 2020). According to WIPO data "technology trends” 2020, only 4 actors out of top 500 AI applicants holding AI patent applications. Due to Europe’s and United Kingdom’s high requirements on data privacy handling and overall regulatory mixture and market impacting factors, it is likely that AI will face issues to become subject to research and user adoption. The EU has also considered legal limitations in order to secure privacy and security.
Furthermore, computer programs are excluded from patentability and solutions made by AI cannot be patented within the scope of European patent convention (Case J 8/20) , which by the nature of AI will have an impact on patent possibilities in this area.
Biography:
Report 2020, issued by https://uk.rs-online.com/web/
Technology Trends 2019 Artificial Intelligence rapport 2019.
Khan, S. (2022) UK AI Patent Law, Potter Clarkson. Available at: https://www.potterclarkson.com/insights/patenting-ai-in-the-uk-trends-and-outlook/ (Accessed: November 19, 2022).
Why might you be wrong?
Germany is a dominant player in technology and might play an important role in the future. The UK is also increasing its amount of AI patents and doubled its filing activity during the last ten years (Khan 2022). Similarly to China, decisionmakers in the UK and Europe are also investigating its approach to AI and might adopt a more flexible approach to patentability and other regulatory limitations.
Why do you think you're right?
According to CNN 1 February, US and India have increased defence and technology cooperation in line with the growing threats from China. Operationally, the focus is on maritime security and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities as well as developing cell phone technologies. Due to the sensitive policial and market related tension, it is likely that all parties will aim to avoid any fatalities to avoid further tension and impact from a security and economic perspectives. Instead, technology and collaboration will be the key activities for China and India.
Why might you be wrong?
The tension might however lead to fatalities in terms of nuclear, defence or similar accidents, as old technology is present in the areas.