RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2020 06:17PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.124936
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.075779
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	-0.004173
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	-0.040679
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	-0.125597
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	-0.015415
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	-0.004928

Mark_Xu