RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.883287
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	1.219146
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	-0.022528
Sep 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?	1.116816
Sep 1, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India?	1.23336
May 10, 2023 04:00PM	What will Ginkgo Bioworks foundry revenue be in the first quarter of 2023?	0.851255
Mar 21, 2023 04:00PM	How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022?	0.049662
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.000439
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	0.580505
Feb 2, 2023 05:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.000517
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	0.682234
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.014501
Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM	What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?	-0.162355
Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	0.132853
Dec 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022)	0.469277
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	-0.014503
Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	0.384974
Nov 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022)	0.866961
Oct 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022)	0.0
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM	Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?	-0.172005

Date Ended

Question

Relative Brier Score

Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM

Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?

0.883287

Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM

By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?

1.219146

Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM

Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?

-0.022528