no indications about this
0.723869
Relative Brier Score
34
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 294 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 156 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 57 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-10%)
Yes
No more time to reach to reach this number.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
No news about it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
No news about this agreement.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-89%)
Yes
This week, two major events related to Haiti have influenced the likelihood of President Henry remaining in office. Firstly, a delegation from Haiti visited Nairobi on a fact-finding mission to assess the readiness of Kenyan police for deployment to Haiti. This indicates a significant level of international cooperation and support, suggesting an 99% likelihood that Henry will continue as president. However, the second event, which introduces a 1% uncertainty, involves a request from the US Congress' Haiti Caucus to the Biden administration, urging them to withdraw support for President Henry. This request could potentially impact his position and international backing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+50%)
Yes
Comment deleted on Dec 14, 2023 04:38PM UTC
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-49%)
Yes
Given that the holiday season for major airlines has already begun with Thanksgiving, it is unlikely that any significant announcements will be made before the end of the year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
According to recent updates, it appears that the elections are now expected to take place in 2025.
Files
My rationale is based on the social unrest after the elections.