No indication of them even training it yet.
0.039971
Relative Brier Score
25
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+1%)
Yes
1% seemed a bit too low.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
They have said they aren't even training it yet and are focusing on improvements to GPT-4.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe they are lying.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
passing time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
No indication of GPT-5 this year.