Confirmed previous forecast
0.183158
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 40 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Less than 7%
28%
(0%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
28%
(0%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
22%
(0%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Status quo is 18%. You might wish to adjust to that.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2023 12:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
91%
Yes
Oct 31, 2023 to Nov 30, 2023
There's a good chance that it will happen during the month of November, due to recent events.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Less than 7%
28%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
28%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
22%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
2%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
This is probably going to happen
Files
Why might you be wrong?
For some reason, this coud not happen
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The probability is very low.
Why might you be wrong?
But it might happen.