I suspect that there will be some cyber-offensive operations that will be tested out in prep for 2024 election by both domestic political campaigns and by foreign actors. Some of this will will likely be initiated by tye typical actors: russia, china, north korea, and iran.
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Probability
Answer
46%
Yes
54%
No
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
The influence operations might not be detected in time or may show up in subsequent reports, so may not show up in 2023. It's also possible that influence campaigns might not be prevalent yet, but would expect them in run up to 2024 election.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
72%
Yes
28%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The question is written as a disjunction, and I think there's a good chance that at least one of these applications will start doing this. There is sufficient concern about non-human sources/bots right now, and I think one of these companies will see this type of labeling as either necessary or as a marketing gimmick. I suspect that this will show up as some sort of graded score, either expressed as a probability or expressed as a graphical indicator (like a heat map), or will build off of existing tools like twitter's 'blue' badge for validated users.
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Why might you be wrong?
The target date might be too soon.
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In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
This will probably happen at some point, but I doubt it will happen by the end of October 2023.
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Why might you be wrong?
I can imagine that a case where a more restrictive country will ban or block access to openAI because they can be seen as a threat. Precedence for this type of action stems from the ban on ticktoc. Though that is a much different scenario, I can imagine that this precendence will enable restrictions on openAI
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Why do you think you're right?
The AI community is sounding alarm over the pace of AI development efforts. I think OpenAI will put a temporary pause on their upcoming version releases as the community grapples with the ethics of AI
Why might you be wrong?
Market forces could continue to propel AI development, with the various competitors continuing to out-do others. The market forces will compel companies to stay on the forefront of development to stay relevant in the rapidly evolving market place.