RAND Forecasting Initiative

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2024 04:32PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	-3%
No	98%	95%	+3%	+3%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2024 04:32PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	85%	10%	+75%	-62%
No	15%	90%	-75%	+62%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2024 04:32PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	97%	-7%	+4%
No	10%	3%	+7%	-4%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2024 05:30PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:39PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	33%	-23%	+21%
No	90%	67%	+23%	-21%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 03:12AM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	20%	18%	+2%	-3%
Bolivia	20%	21%	-1%	-5%
Ecuador	20%	12%	+8%	-2%

Mikel_117

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