MillerTime

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 Definitions
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MillerTime
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
MillerTime
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (-44%)
Less than 20
25% (+2%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
40% (+26%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
25% (+16%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
5% (0%)
More than or equal to 50
Why do you think you're right?

Looked at 2022 data, typical month is 10-12

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Why might you be wrong?

Increased use of autonomous vehicles vs increased safety of average vehicle

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MillerTime
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
MillerTime
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
MillerTime
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
49%
Less than 20
23%
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
14%
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
9%
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
5%
More than or equal to 50
Why do you think you're right?

I have seen very few reports of collisions involving autonomous vehicles and believe that the usage rate in CA is relatively low.

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Why might you be wrong?

I answered the question based on no historical data aside from newspaper reading, and without a clear understanding of a) what is considered an autonomous vehicle (I assumed fully autonomous mode) and b) what is considered a reportable accident (I assumed it needs to be serious enough to warrant reporting to the police)

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