I have seen very few reports of collisions involving autonomous vehicles and believe that the usage rate in CA is relatively low.
-0.016228
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Probability
Answer
49%
Less than 20
23%
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
14%
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
9%
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
5%
More than or equal to 50
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I answered the question based on no historical data aside from newspaper reading, and without a clear understanding of a) what is considered an autonomous vehicle (I assumed fully autonomous mode) and b) what is considered a reportable accident (I assumed it needs to be serious enough to warrant reporting to the police)
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Why do you think you're right?
Looked at 2022 data, typical month is 10-12
Why might you be wrong?
Increased use of autonomous vehicles vs increased safety of average vehicle