RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 15, 2022 01:10PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Aug 2022	-0.051979
Jul 06, 2022 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	-0.034947
Jul 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022)	0.0
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC	How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.028621
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC	How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	-0.003954
Jul 01, 2022 01:33PM UTC	By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO?	0.065579
Jul 01, 2022 01:25PM UTC	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	-0.001162
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM UTC	On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?	0.115439
Jun 15, 2022 01:12PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jul 2022	0.02906
Jun 04, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022?	0.004553
Jun 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022)	-0.000116
Jun 02, 2022 01:40PM UTC	What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?	-0.036052
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	-0.049703
May 25, 2022 02:09PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?	0.008268
May 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jun 2022	-0.010181
May 06, 2022 09:00PM UTC	What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022?	0.314871
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	-0.001327
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	0.122506
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.06772
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	-0.087708

MullenAustin

Austin Mullen

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