MullenAustin

Austin Mullen
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2020 Season Stats

1.313377

Relative Brier Score

61

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 1832
Comments 0 0 0 0 1127
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 164
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 419
 Definitions
New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast

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New Prediction
How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?
MullenAustin made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
13% (0%)
Less than 40
29% (0%)
More than or equal to 40 but less than 60
35% (0%)
More than or equal to 60 but less than 80
18% (0%)
More than or equal to 80 but less than 100
5% (0%)
More than or equal to 100

Confirming previous forecast

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New Prediction
On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?
MullenAustin made their 8th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
30% (0%)
Less than 5
32% (0%)
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
37% (0%)
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 18

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction
Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?
MullenAustin made their 8th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Feb 11, 2023 11:54PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-1%)
Yes
Jan 11, 2023 to Feb 11, 2023

No indication that a use or test is imminent, revising downwards a point from last month's prediction.

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New Prediction
From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?
MullenAustin made their 16th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
63% (0%)
Less than 200
30% (0%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
5% (0%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 1000

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast

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New Prediction
New Prediction
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?
MullenAustin made their 20th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
1% (-1%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
4% (-2%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
1% (0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
94% (+3%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova

Lowering the yes's with the passage of time.

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