MullenAustin

Austin Mullen
About:

Show more
View All Badges »
2022 Season Stats

0.046248

Relative Brier Score

1213

Forecasts

313

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 1832
Comments 0 0 0 0 117
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 164
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 419
 Definitions
New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction
How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?
MullenAustin made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
13% (0%)
Less than 40
29% (0%)
More than or equal to 40 but less than 60
35% (0%)
More than or equal to 60 but less than 80
18% (0%)
More than or equal to 80 but less than 100
5% (0%)
More than or equal to 100

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction
On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?
MullenAustin made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30% (0%)
Less than 5
32% (0%)
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
37% (0%)
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 18

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction
Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?
MullenAustin made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Feb 11, 2023 11:54PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-1%)
Yes
Jan 11, 2023 to Feb 11, 2023

No indication that a use or test is imminent, revising downwards a point from last month's prediction.

Files
New Prediction
From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?
MullenAustin made their 16th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
63% (0%)
Less than 200
30% (0%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
5% (0%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 1000

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?
MullenAustin made their 20th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (-1%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
4% (-2%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
1% (0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
94% (+3%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova

Lowering the yes's with the passage of time.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel