I believe that Russia will not use a nuclear weapon in the next month because the cost of engaging with nuclear weapons are too large.
0.013542
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1
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This forecast expired on Nov 16, 2022 08:29PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 16, 2022 to Nov 16, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong because Putin has shown in the past the he does not adhere to what the rest of the world expects and does not follow the advice of others.
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Why do you think you're right?
I think I am right because there has not been an indication that the situation is heating up or a signal that this will happen. Also, there is only one month left until that deadline.
Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong because North Korea has not been an entirely predictable state, so anything can happen.