RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	-0.031079
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.007087
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.238943
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.114605
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	0.017406
Oct 01, 2021 06:31PM UTC	[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?	-0.07079
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	-0.000833

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