Increasing slightly, but still seems like out of reach at current trajectory
-0.0103
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(+4%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 22, 2023 07:22PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Jan 22, 2023 to Feb 22, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
Low base rate, Russia has little to gain by it
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there are war dynamics that Putin is thinking of that is now obvious to Western observers.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Would necessitate a speeding up of the base rate of growth
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Potential new players in the space that might spur faster development.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 12, 2023 09:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 12, 2022 to Jan 12, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Based on the history, there is normally more than one year between releases. And right now, with all the attention, it seems unlikely they would want to take that risk.