Rising US China tensions, lack of cutting edge AI compute in China and risk the lab could be cutoff from remote access if there is a cyberattack, or other government interference.
0.000762
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
2023 Q2
0%
2023 Q3
0%
2023 Q4
0%
2024 Q1
0%
2024 Q2
Why do you think you're right?
Apple, NVIDIA and AMD make up the bulk of current leading edge (read: expensive) node customers TSMC services. With the current AI boom, and continued large spend by hyperscalers, it is unlikely that revenue from the US will drop under 40%, especially as China is now cut off from TSMC due to trade embargoes.
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Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
He is now above the average life expenctancy for a Russian male, however, he also has vast resources to spend on cutting edge medical interventions. A coup is unlikely as he has a firm grip on the levers of power, and has eliminated most threats to his seat.
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Why do you think you're right?
We’re only a month away, he’s won the latest election and health appears stable.
Why might you be wrong?
Sudden health issue, eg heart attack or stroke.