0.054075
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
GPT 4 has just been released and there was a lot of time between GPT3 and GPT4 (over two years). Furthermore, people from open AI have suggested they want to focus on implementing and testing GPT4 instead of releasing a new model in the near future.
Why might you be wrong?
Breakthroughs can be hard to predict, there was not a lot of time between GPT 3.5 and GPT 4 and with the exponential increase in compute capabilities it might be easier to make an even better model quickly than I expect. Furthermore openAI released a model in 2018,2019 and 2020 so if we go back to that pace it would not be that surprising for another model to be released this year