Confirmed previous forecast
-0.018867
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
We are not there yet
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hidden research on quantum computing
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
The Last one they tested is in 2017. They may not be ready just yet.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The nuclear program in N/Korea is shrouded in secrecy
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Elections in Russian taking place way after March 1.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Though possible health conditions of the president is reported; he still will be strong enough to rule Russia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-97%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Based on planned rocket launches obtained from https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/2023-launch-schedule/page/2/
Last year's historical data from https://www.rocketlaunch.live/stats
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If sourced data from https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/2023-launch-schedule/page/2/ prooves unreliable
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The war is a deterrent.
Why might you be wrong?
Not much research