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It is significantly unlikely, nearly impossible that Vladimir Putin will cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before May 1, 2024. Several key points support this conclusion:
Putin was a candidate in the Russian presidential elections held from March 15 to 17, 2024. He secured a significant victory, claiming 87% of the vote. Not only does this highlight his continued political dominance, but also suggests that he will remain in office for the foreseeable future.
Changes to the Russian Constitution in 2020 have also played a significant role in extending Putin's potential tenure as president. The amendments reset the count of presidential terms, effectively allowing Putin to serve two additional terms. This means he could potentially remain in office until 2036, far beyond the May 1, 2024 timeframe.
In addition, the political landscape in Russia leading up to the 2024 elections was heavily tilted in Putin's favor. Key opposition figures were barred from running, and the election itself was not considered free or fair by many international observers.
Finally, despite the ongoing war with Ukraine and the related challenges, Putin's regime has demonstrated repeated resilience. The conflict, although exposing weaknesses in the Russian state and military, has not significantly undermined Putin's grip on power. The likelihood of a regime change due to the war or external pressures from the West appears low at this point.
The only threat Putin may face until 1 May 2024 that may cause him to lose his position is his own health, which, despite contradicting reports over the past few years, seem to be highly stable. Putin appears on public media and has delivered speeches looking completely healthy, and it is likely to remain the same until May 1, 2024.