RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.089941
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.425997
Apr 1, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	-0.065435
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	0.738666
Jan 4, 2022 01:19PM	How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?	0.031173
Jan 3, 2022 01:44PM	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	0.167584
Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?	0.048536
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	0.104972
Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.131021
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.386538
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	0.308529
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	0.147733
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?	-0.03116
Jun 1, 2021 06:44PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	-0.000094
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.229242
Apr 1, 2021 04:51PM	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.003113
Mar 7, 2021 09:22PM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.142672
Feb 1, 2021 02:49PM	How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.182507
Feb 1, 2021 02:48PM	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.119748